I originally wrote the following article in July 2006, but never published it anywhere. Since it's still relevant today so I figured I'd post it. If anything I'm more convinced the vision is correct and new devices like iPads and Kindles are part of the proof. As are data syncing technologies like "The Cloud." There's still a lot of evolution to come though.
Editorial: The Technology Industry Needs More Consumers Like Me
A one size fits all device will stagnate the technology industry. More consumers need to be like me. I have two laptops (one a small convertable tablet), a desktop computer, a PDA phone, camera, game console, DVR, A/V receiver, portable music player, etc. If I had a one size fits all device I wouldn't have spent nearly as much money, but I'd have less functionality and more importantly less usability. As an industry we need to convince consumers that the extra functionality and usability are worth the price.
Opening up data is key. With many devices the user's data needs to be easily portable and accessible on every device. This requires technical and social change on the part of consumers and producers. When I hear a song on the radio that I like I should be able to press a button and have the song information downloaded to my portable music player (iPod, etc.). Then when I get to a computer the music player will inform the computer that I'm interested in the song and show me where I can buy it.
One size fits all devices aren't power efficient and consumers are forced to make size trade offs. I'm willing to pay for DVR capability in every room, but proprietary data restricts my options. Kitchens don't have one device that does everything. The Nike/Apple alliance shows that companies understand that products are stronger if they don't stand alone, but the problem with this alliance is the device restrictions placed on it. Some of this might be unavoidable, but the problem starts with Apple's desire to lock users into their proprietary content protection.
You might ask how consumers will pay for all these devices. If they buy them it creates a chain reaction: more jobs -> grows economy -> more purchase power. (I should backup this theory with hard data, but I won't bother since this is a 4+ year old blog post, not a peer reviewed publication.)
From comments at DAC 2006 it seems like Nvidia's co-founder Chris Malachowsky and Intel's Brenden Traw agree that the PC won't absorb the features of every other device in the home. Chris specifically doesn't think multimedia and PC markets will converge because diversity helps competition and makes it more interesting to the people using the technology and economy and investors. It's good to see others (especially others in influential positions) agree with my vision of where the industry needs to head. Ease of use and power are big reasons I believe specialized devices will rule the mass market. It's also healthy for the semiconductor industry as more specialized devices mean more chips are sold. It's easier for a consumer to rationalize buying an iPod and a phone over buying two phones that also play music. Common protocols are the key to making specialized devices work. Currently DRM and IP issues are the bane of consumers so hopefully something will be worked out to facilitate seamless cross device communications.
A parallel to the technology industry is the fashion industry has shoppers that are willing to buy shoes or bags for each occasion or outfit rather than buying a single pair of shoes that kind of fits every occasion.
Edit: I forgot to mention it's ironic that I mentioned both Nvidia and Intel since I worked for Nvidia's competitor ATI at the time and later in 2006 we were acquired by AMD so now Intel is competition too.
